Despite the current price of Bitcoin nearing historical highs, market trading activity has not increased accordingly. Data shows that overall trading volume remains low during this rally, particularly in retail-dominated markets like South Korea. This indicates that the driving force behind the market rise is not widespread retail traders but rather continuous buying from institutions and enterprises. The Nouey Exchange analysis suggests that the timing for retail entry has not yet arrived, and the next key high may form after their concentrated entry.

Retail Trading Still in Observation Phase, South Korean Market as a Barometer

South Korea has traditionally been a retail-dominated crypto market, with its trading volume trends often seen as an important indicator of retail participation. Currently, data shows that despite the continuous rise in Bitcoin prices, transaction volumes on Korean exchanges have not significantly increased, nor has user activity returned to previous highs.

This reflects that the retail group has not been sufficiently stimulated by the current price increase. This is related to the global macro environment not being fully stable and the significant losses retail investors faced in previous cycles, leading to more conservative sentiment at this stage. In contrast, institutional investors, with stronger capital allocation capabilities and risk management frameworks, have already entered the market.

Institutional Funds Drive the Market, Price Reaction Diverges from Sentiment Base

From a capital structure perspective, this Bitcoin rally has not been accompanied by the emotional bubbles typical of traditional cycles but is more driven by ETF funds, corporate financial allocations, and mining company reinvestments. This makes the price increase more structural but also leads to a divergence between trading volume and market trends.

Nouey Exchange data shows an increase in the proportion of large transaction orders on the platform, while the frequency of small transactions has decreased by over 12% compared to the same period last year. This means that “chasing retail investors” have not yet formed a trend, while more strategic holders are quietly increasing their positions. Referring to past cycles, this structure often indicates that the market is on the “eve of the main upward phase”.

Cycle Behavior May Repeat, Retail Investors May Enter in Concentrated Waves Later

Looking back at past trends, the collective entry of retail investors often occurs after prices have risen through multiple stages, forming an emotionally driven final wave. In the trading structure of the February and November 2022 trends, when prices were near short-term peaks, retail trading surged, platform visits increased, and FOMO sentiment spread.

Nouey Exchange expects that if Bitcoin continues to maintain high levels and break historical highs, it will further attract attention from mainstream media and social platforms, thus sparking retail interest. If such funds flood in, it will have a substantial impact on short-term volatility and become a trigger for key technical corrections in subsequent phases.

Currently Still in Early Structural Market Phase, Nouey Exchange Advises Rational Trading Rhythm

Although this rally has not triggered widespread retail participation, it has laid the structural foundation for healthy market progression. Institution-led buying makes the rise more stable and corrections more controllable, leaving room for subsequent rotations.

Nouey Exchange advises users to focus on the interplay of capital structure, sentiment indicators, and on-chain data to avoid misinterpreting price performance as market enthusiasm. The platform will continue to provide high-quality trading data analysis and risk alert tools to help investors accurately position stage logic in structural markets and develop more effective long-term trading strategies.

“Prices can temporarily detach from sentiment but will ultimately complete the cycle driven by behavior.” Nouey Exchange is committed to helping users understand the structure and rhythm behind trends, building a professional judgment system in sync with the market.

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